The US is in the midst of its most dramatic shift in policy, emphasizing forward defense and deterrence and to "intercept and halt" adversary cyber operations. Supporters believe these actions should significantly reduce attacks against the United States, while critics worry they may incite more adversary activity. There is no standard methodology to measure which is the case. This talk details recent research to introduce transparent frameworks to better assess whether the new U.S. policy and actions are suppressing or encouraging attacks.